Thursday
Apr022009
Fascinating Blog Comment ... World Order Realignment ?
Thursday, April 2, 2009 at 8:48AM
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Thank you, china_hand2
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"I agree with b's summation; the current G20 meeting is nothing more than a political staging ground for the battle lines of the next decade. I would voice it something like this:
The U.S., Australia and UK want a big global stimulus financed by more debt: i.e. -- they want the current world order maintained, since it was built by them and favors them.
The "continental big-powers France and Germany" want global regulation of all financial markets...because they support a social-democratic resolution to this crisis, in the tradition of "Old Europe" (as Cheney once put it). Northern Europe will join them. In these matters, i predict they will eventually be joined by Mediterranean Europe and most of democratic Central Europe (i.e. -- not Ukraine, Georgia, and the like).
China and Russia want a new global reserve currency based on a mix of currencies and gold and in the form of IMF special drawing rights. In this, i predict they will be joined by the bulk of the second- and third-world countries, esp. Syria, leftist South- and Central America, parts of Africa (esp. North Africa), most of Central Asia,
India is currently up in the air. Traditional alignment against Chinese interests puts them at fundamental odds with the campaign for a new reserve, but at the same time the traditional Indian non-aligned/socialist orientation puts them in favor of it. The main joker in the cards is the current U.S. black-ops campaign directed against all opposition to India's far right and the possibility that the BJP may gain power and then shift hard to the right in a reactionary stance against China and Pakistan.
Pakistan, too, is up in the air, because they are essentially a Saudi client, and the Saudis have a lot of their money in U.S. dollars. China, however, is making big inroads, based primarily upon Pakistan's fear of India and its newfound fear of the U.S. The likelihood of a re-alignment in favor of China is increased by the current U.S. attacks on it.
Iran and Syria will favor a new reserve currency -- if not overtly, then covertly.
In short time (<10 years), Iraq, Lebanon and Egypt will also favor a new reserve. Indonesia and the rest of South East Asia will probably favor the Chinese solution. All of these areas have strong national elites which favor the current world system, but each also has extremely powerful popular movements which oppose recent the USUK globalization putsch. Over time, the popular movements will grow stronger and the elites be forced to entrench themselves behind increased surveillance and state policing. As that ossification develops the USUK hold will find their influence waning, and their position increasingly embattled. Time, in this, is not in their favor.
Japan is actually at a crossroads; they are afraid of China, but recognize that in a very short time they will need to "play nice" and cozy up to the behemoth in their back yard. Japan is sensible and practical, and above all else will do what's best for Japan. Remember: the economy may be "failing", but Japan still has one of the highest standards of living in the world, and that shows no signs of taking a hit. In the long run, what's best for Japan is to shift from the U.S. sphere to the Chinese sphere. In the long run (<15 years), that transition will be overtly complete. It will begin in earnest once Taiwan flips -- and Taiwan will flip. The only question is whether or not the U.S. will fight a war to flip it back.
So basically we have "Old Europe" social democratic solutions that largely keep the basic capitalist framework, but inhibited by more strict regulatory agencies; the Sino-Russian solution, which favors second- and third-world countries at the expense of U.S./UK hegemony (and both of these solutions are, in both places, explicitly linked with "Green" initiatives); finally, there is the USUK "solution", which means more war, more intrusive state policing, increased social and economic stratification, and environmental "solutions" corralled into the multi-national corporate sphere (i.e. -- long term environmental degradation for anyone who's not part of the USUK top-tenth percentile).
In the next 6-12 years, I see the European bloc and the Russo-Sino bloc eventually coming to terms with one another and negotiating a comprehensive agreement that isolates the U.S. and UK, both economically and diplomatically (i.e. -- a Eurasian renaissance). The main inhibiting factor will be what happens with India, Iran and Pakistan during that time. If the U.S. and UK succeed in turning India, then look towards the longer end of that period. If the U.S. fails, then look towards the shorter end.
Personally, I think it will be closer to the 6-year time frame; maybe even sooner."
.
Thank you, china_hand2
.
"I agree with b's summation; the current G20 meeting is nothing more than a political staging ground for the battle lines of the next decade. I would voice it something like this:
The U.S., Australia and UK want a big global stimulus financed by more debt: i.e. -- they want the current world order maintained, since it was built by them and favors them.
The "continental big-powers France and Germany" want global regulation of all financial markets...because they support a social-democratic resolution to this crisis, in the tradition of "Old Europe" (as Cheney once put it). Northern Europe will join them. In these matters, i predict they will eventually be joined by Mediterranean Europe and most of democratic Central Europe (i.e. -- not Ukraine, Georgia, and the like).
China and Russia want a new global reserve currency based on a mix of currencies and gold and in the form of IMF special drawing rights. In this, i predict they will be joined by the bulk of the second- and third-world countries, esp. Syria, leftist South- and Central America, parts of Africa (esp. North Africa), most of Central Asia,
India is currently up in the air. Traditional alignment against Chinese interests puts them at fundamental odds with the campaign for a new reserve, but at the same time the traditional Indian non-aligned/socialist orientation puts them in favor of it. The main joker in the cards is the current U.S. black-ops campaign directed against all opposition to India's far right and the possibility that the BJP may gain power and then shift hard to the right in a reactionary stance against China and Pakistan.
Pakistan, too, is up in the air, because they are essentially a Saudi client, and the Saudis have a lot of their money in U.S. dollars. China, however, is making big inroads, based primarily upon Pakistan's fear of India and its newfound fear of the U.S. The likelihood of a re-alignment in favor of China is increased by the current U.S. attacks on it.
Iran and Syria will favor a new reserve currency -- if not overtly, then covertly.
In short time (<10 years), Iraq, Lebanon and Egypt will also favor a new reserve. Indonesia and the rest of South East Asia will probably favor the Chinese solution. All of these areas have strong national elites which favor the current world system, but each also has extremely powerful popular movements which oppose recent the USUK globalization putsch. Over time, the popular movements will grow stronger and the elites be forced to entrench themselves behind increased surveillance and state policing. As that ossification develops the USUK hold will find their influence waning, and their position increasingly embattled. Time, in this, is not in their favor.
Japan is actually at a crossroads; they are afraid of China, but recognize that in a very short time they will need to "play nice" and cozy up to the behemoth in their back yard. Japan is sensible and practical, and above all else will do what's best for Japan. Remember: the economy may be "failing", but Japan still has one of the highest standards of living in the world, and that shows no signs of taking a hit. In the long run, what's best for Japan is to shift from the U.S. sphere to the Chinese sphere. In the long run (<15 years), that transition will be overtly complete. It will begin in earnest once Taiwan flips -- and Taiwan will flip. The only question is whether or not the U.S. will fight a war to flip it back.
So basically we have "Old Europe" social democratic solutions that largely keep the basic capitalist framework, but inhibited by more strict regulatory agencies; the Sino-Russian solution, which favors second- and third-world countries at the expense of U.S./UK hegemony (and both of these solutions are, in both places, explicitly linked with "Green" initiatives); finally, there is the USUK "solution", which means more war, more intrusive state policing, increased social and economic stratification, and environmental "solutions" corralled into the multi-national corporate sphere (i.e. -- long term environmental degradation for anyone who's not part of the USUK top-tenth percentile).
In the next 6-12 years, I see the European bloc and the Russo-Sino bloc eventually coming to terms with one another and negotiating a comprehensive agreement that isolates the U.S. and UK, both economically and diplomatically (i.e. -- a Eurasian renaissance). The main inhibiting factor will be what happens with India, Iran and Pakistan during that time. If the U.S. and UK succeed in turning India, then look towards the longer end of that period. If the U.S. fails, then look towards the shorter end.
Personally, I think it will be closer to the 6-year time frame; maybe even sooner."
.
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